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USD/TRY spot at 47.35 sits 5.78% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, per the full USD/TRY bank forecast table — and the 12.80-point spread between the highest and lowest published targets makes this the widest dispersion in the EM FX consensus tracker.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 25, 2026): 47.35
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −5.78% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY — ING: 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY — UBS: 43.50
Where Does Each Bank Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 50.00 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade Below the Consensus Target?
The gap between spot at 47.35 and the 50.25 median reflects a TRY that has held firmer than the majority of desks anticipated when they set year-end targets. The TCMB's real-rate posture is central to this. The central bank has maintained a policy rate well above headline CPI, producing a positive real rate that has attracted carry inflows and supported the lira against a broadly softer dollar backdrop in H1 2026. Reserve accumulation — gross FX reserves have rebuilt materially from the 2023 lows — has also reduced the tail risk of a disorderly depreciation that many sell-side models priced in at the start of the year.
Inflation, while still elevated by any developed-market standard, has continued a disinflation trajectory that the TCMB has been able to validate with a measured easing cycle rather than the premature cuts that derailed prior stabilisation attempts. That sequencing matters: so long as the TCMB keeps the real rate positive and the inflation path credible, the carry trade remains intact and spot has a structural anchor below consensus. The consensus bias is nonetheless bullish on USD/TRY — 13 of the 14 reported desks carry bearish TRY stances for year-end — meaning the market view is that the current TRY resilience is borrowed time rather than a structural re-rating.
Which Banks Are the Outliers, and Where Is the Spread Widest?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-25 21:03 UTC
The 12.80-point dispersion between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the widest in the EM FX consensus. That range is not noise — it reflects genuinely incompatible macro assumptions.
UBS at 43.50 is the sole forecast below current spot, implying the desk sees further TRY appreciation from here — a view predicated on sustained TCMB credibility, continued disinflation, and reserve adequacy holding. HSBC at 44.50 is only marginally above spot and similarly anchored to the orthodox policy scenario.
ING at 56.30 — the sole neutral stance in the table — sits 18.9 points above UBS and implies a depreciation of roughly 19% from current levels by December. The ING framework typically weights external financing requirements and the current account deficit more heavily; a deterioration in either, or a policy misstep, would validate the upper end of the range rapidly. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 occupy the next tier, both reflecting scepticism that the current carry-driven equilibrium survives into Q4 without some depreciation pressure re-emerging.
The clustering of desks between 49.00 and 52.00 — Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Standard Chartered, RBC, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, MUFG — represents the modal view: gradual, managed depreciation consistent with the TCMB's implicit crawl tolerance, but not a disorderly move.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
As of July 25, 2026, USD/TRY spot is 47.35.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/TRY by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 firms is 50.25, implying approximately 5.78% upside for USD/TRY from current spot.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast?
ING holds the top target at 56.30, the furthest from current spot among the 18 firms in the consensus.
Which bank has the lowest USD/TRY forecast?
UBS carries the floor at 43.50 — below current spot — reflecting a view that TRY can extend its gains if TCMB policy discipline holds through year-end.
→ See the full ING FX outlook at ING's forecast page for the assumptions behind the 56.30 year-end target, the widest call in the USD/TRY consensus.
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Goldman Sachs →
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Commerzbank →
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JPMorgan →
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