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USD/TRY spot at 47.94 sits 4.60% below the 18-firm cross-bank full USD/TRY bank forecast table median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point max-to-min dispersion that ranks among the widest in emerging-market FX consensus tracking.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 19, 2026): 47.94
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −4.60% (spot well below target)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade So Far Below Consensus?
The 4.60% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median reflects a lira that has, at least temporarily, outperformed the depreciation path most desks modelled at the start of the year. The central variable is the TCMB's real-rate posture. Turkey's central bank has maintained a policy rate well above headline CPI, generating a positive real rate that has attracted carry inflows and supported the lira against a backdrop of broader EM resilience. When real rates are meaningfully positive and the central bank signals continuity, spot can hold well above the trajectory implied by structural inflation differentials — which is precisely the dynamic compressing the gap to consensus.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the picture. Gross reserves have rebuilt from the depleted levels that characterised the 2021–2023 period, reducing the probability of a disorderly intervention episode that would accelerate depreciation. As long as the TCMB does not cut prematurely — and as long as the current account does not deteriorate sharply — spot can sustain a discount to year-end targets. The risk, as most bearish desks frame it, is that the real-rate buffer erodes through either a policy pivot or a renewed inflation acceleration in Q4 2026, at which point the gap to consensus closes rapidly.
Which Banks Are the Outliers, and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-19 16:05 UTC
The 12.80-point spread between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the defining feature of this consensus snapshot. That range is unusually wide even for USD/TRY, a pair accustomed to forecast scatter. It signals that the two most consequential analytical inputs — the terminal inflation rate and the TCMB's willingness to defend real rates — are generating genuinely divergent outputs across modelling frameworks, not merely different calibrations of the same view.
ING's 56.30 target, the highest in the panel and paired with a neutral stance, implies roughly 17.5% depreciation from current spot. The desk's framework appears to weight structural lira weakness more heavily than near-term carry support, treating the current real-rate regime as transitory rather than durable. At the other end, UBS at 43.50 — below current spot — is the lone forecast that implies lira appreciation through year-end, a view that requires sustained TCMB credibility, continued disinflation, and no material external shock. HSBC at 44.50 is the only other sub-spot target in the visible panel.
The cluster between 49.00 and 53.50 — where Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Nomura, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan all sit — represents the modal view: gradual lira depreciation consistent with a positive but narrowing real-rate differential as inflation proves stickier than the TCMB's baseline. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 is the most bearish within this cluster, implying the real-rate cushion dissipates more quickly than peers assume.
Notably, Citi is the only desk in the visible panel carrying a bullish stance on USD/TRY despite a 49.50 target that sits near the consensus median — a combination that reflects a view that spot will depreciate modestly but that the pair's risk is skewed to the upside relative to current pricing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate as of August 19, 2026?
USD/TRY spot is 47.94 as of the week of August 19, 2026, placing it 4.60% below the 18-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 forecasting institutions is 50.25, implying further lira depreciation from current levels if the consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY target and which has the lowest?
ING holds the highest target at 56.30; UBS holds the lowest at 43.50, producing a 12.80-point dispersion that reflects fundamental disagreement on TCMB policy durability and the Turkish inflation trajectory.
Is the overall bank consensus bullish or bearish on USD/TRY?
The consensus bias is bullish on USD/TRY — meaning the majority of desks expect the lira to weaken further against the dollar by December 2026 — though the 12.80-point spread indicates the conviction behind that view varies sharply across firms.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most bullish USD/TRY case in the current consensus panel.
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Firms covered in this article
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Goldman Sachs →
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Societe Generale →
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Citi →
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Commerzbank →
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Bank of America →
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UBS →
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ING →
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Deutsche Bank →
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Nomura →
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Morgan Stanley →
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