On this page · 4 sections▾
USD/TRY sits at 48.06 as of August 23, 2026 — 4.35% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25 — while the full USD/TRY bank forecast table shows a 12.80-point spread between the most and least bearish desks, the widest dispersion in EM FX consensus tracked here.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 48.0646
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Gap vs spot: −4.35% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade 4.35% below the consensus median?
The gap between spot and the 50.25 median reflects two forces pulling in opposite directions. The TCMB has maintained a positive real policy rate through 2026 — a posture that, combined with a carry-hungry EM bid, has kept the lira firmer than most year-start forecasts assumed. Gross FX reserves have rebuilt materially from the depleted levels that defined 2023–24, reducing the tail risk of a disorderly depreciation event that many desks had priced into their Dec-26 targets when they were set.
The consensus bias is technically bullish on USD/TRY — 13 of the 14 disclosed desks carry targets above current spot, implying further lira depreciation by year-end. That said, the pace implied is modest relative to historical TRY drawdowns: the median target of 50.25 represents roughly a 4.5% move from here, well within a single month's historical volatility for the pair. The structural depreciation story has not been abandoned; it has been deferred, and the deferred quantum is now compressed into four months of calendar.
Which banks are the outliers, and what explains the 12.80-point dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-23 11:02 UTC
The 12.80-point max-to-min spread — ING at 56.30 versus UBS at 43.50 — is the widest in the EM FX consensus panel and reflects genuine model disagreement rather than stale quotes. The divergence maps cleanly onto three contested variables.
First, the inflation path. Desks expecting CPI to remain sticky into year-end — J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 — argue the TCMB will face political pressure to ease prematurely, eroding the real-rate buffer that has anchored the lira. Second, reserve adequacy. UBS and HSBC, at 43.50 and 44.50 respectively, assign higher probability to reserve accumulation continuing at pace, which would allow the TCMB to smooth depreciation well below the consensus glide path. Third, external financing. ING's 56.30 — the sole neutral stance in the table — appears to embed a scenario where the current-account deficit widens on energy import costs and the central bank's intervention capacity is tested, forcing a sharper adjustment.
Citi is the only desk carrying a bullish stance on USD/TRY with a below-median target of 49.50, a combination that implies the pair rises modestly from here but underperforms the broader consensus depreciation call — consistent with a view that the TCMB holds rates longer than peers expect.
What is the TCMB's real-rate stance doing to the carry trade?
Positive real rates have been the single most consequential variable for USD/TRY in 2026. When the TCMB moved to orthodox monetary policy in mid-2023, it inherited a deeply negative real rate; by mid-2026 that gap had closed and, on most CPI-deflated measures, flipped positive. That shift drew carry inflows that compressed the depreciation pace relative to purchasing-power-parity models, which continue to point toward levels well above 50.
The risk is asymmetric. Reserve dynamics have improved — net reserves ex-swaps are no longer negative — but the stock remains thin relative to short-term external debt. A reversal in EM risk appetite, a commodity shock, or a premature rate cut would expose that thinness quickly. The desks clustered between 50.00 and 52.00 — Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America — represent the base-case view: orderly depreciation resumes as the TCMB begins a measured easing cycle in Q4, carry unwinds gradually, and the lira drifts toward fair value without a dislocation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
As of August 23, 2026, USD/TRY trades at 48.0646, placing it 4.35% below the 18-firm cross-desk median Dec-26 target of 50.25.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters?
The dispersion between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets is 12.80 points — ING at 56.30 versus UBS at 43.50 — the widest spread in the current EM FX consensus panel.
Is the overall bank consensus bullish or bearish on USD/TRY?
Consensus is bullish on USD/TRY (i.e., bearish on the lira): the median target of 50.25 sits above spot at 48.06, implying further TRY depreciation by December 2026 across most desks.
Which desk has the most aggressive depreciation call?
ING carries the highest Dec-26 target at 56.30 with a neutral stance, implying roughly 17% depreciation from current spot; J.P. Morgan is the most bearish among directionally committed desks at 53.50.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 56.30 year-end target and how it sits against the 18-firm USD/TRY consensus.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.10, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 25, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.10, roughly 4.3% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the lira path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 38.08, Dec-26 Median 50.25 — Week of Aug 24, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.082, roughly 4.3% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a record 12.8-point spread separating UBS from ING.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.06, Spread 12.8 — Week of Aug 21, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.06, roughly 4.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.8-point dispersion that is the widest in EM FX.
Share