On this page · 5 sections▾
USD/TRY trades at 48.082 as of the week of August 24, 2026 — roughly 4.3% below the 18-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with the widest dispersion in EM FX at 12.8 points; see the full USD/TRY bank forecast table for the complete picture across all contributing desks.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 24, 2026): 48.082
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 (widest in EM FX)
- Gap vs spot: −4.31% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY (highest target): ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY (lowest target): UBS at 43.50
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade 4.3% Below the Dec-26 Consensus?
The gap between spot and the 18-firm median reflects a market that has, at least temporarily, run ahead of the lira depreciation path most desks anticipated when they set year-end targets. The TCMB's real-rate posture is the fulcrum. After the aggressive tightening cycle that lifted the policy rate well into positive real territory, the central bank has been cautious about easing — a stance that has compressed carry-funded outflows and supported the lira relative to the trajectory implied by consensus.
Inflation, while still elevated by any developed-market standard, has been decelerating faster than several bank models assumed. When disinflation outpaces the nominal depreciation rate, the real exchange rate appreciates — exactly what the spot level relative to consensus implies. The TCMB has also rebuilt gross reserves materially from the lows of 2023-24, reducing the vulnerability that historically forced disorderly lira moves. Net reserve adequacy remains a contested metric across desks, but the directional improvement has removed one of the more acute tail risks that anchored the upper end of year-end target distributions.
The practical implication: with spot at 48.082 and the median at 50.25, the consensus still calls for roughly 4.5 additional figures of lira weakness by December — but that is a far more orderly glide path than the double-digit annual depreciations that defined the 2018-2023 period.
Which Banks Are the Outliers, and What Explains the 12.8-Point Spread?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-24 11:04 UTC
The 12.80-point dispersion between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the widest in EM FX and reflects genuine disagreement on three variables: the durability of TCMB orthodoxy, the pace of disinflation, and the political economy of rate policy heading into 2027.
The bear case on TRY (USD/TRY higher): ING at 56.30 sits roughly 17% above spot and 12% above the next-highest target. The desk's framework appears to weight the risk that the TCMB pivots to easing prematurely — a recurring pattern in Turkish monetary history — which would compress the real rate buffer and reignite depreciation pressure. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 occupy the next tier, both flagging that the current account deficit, while narrower, has not structurally closed, and that external financing needs remain a latent source of lira vulnerability.
The bull case on TRY (USD/TRY lower): UBS at 43.50 implies the lira strengthens from current levels — a minority view shared in direction, if not magnitude, by HSBC at 44.50. Both desks appear to assign higher probability to the TCMB sustaining positive real rates through year-end, continued disinflation, and reserve accumulation that reduces the risk premium embedded in TRY. If those conditions hold, the carry trade remains attractive and spot could undershoot even the most optimistic consensus target.
The middle ground: The cluster between 49.00 and 52.00 — Commerzbank, Société Générale, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Bank of America, MUFG, and Morgan Stanley — represents the modal view: gradual, managed depreciation consistent with a TCMB that eases slowly and an inflation path that converges toward single digits only in 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate as of August 24, 2026?
USD/TRY spot is 48.082 as of the week of August 24, 2026, placing it approximately 4.31% below the 18-firm cross-bank consensus Dec-26 median of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing banks is 50.25, implying roughly 4.5 figures of additional lira depreciation from current spot levels if consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast for December 2026?
ING holds the highest target at 56.30, implying lira weakness of approximately 17% from spot — the most bearish TRY view in the consensus panel.
Which bank has the lowest USD/TRY forecast, and what does it imply?
UBS carries the lowest target at 43.50, implying lira appreciation from current levels — a view that requires sustained TCMB orthodoxy, continued disinflation, and stable reserve dynamics through year-end.
---
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most bullish USD/TRY call in the current consensus panel.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.10, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 25, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.10, roughly 4.3% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the lira path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.06 vs 50.25 Median Target, Week of August 23, 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.35% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the TCMB's real-rate path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.06, Spread 12.8 — Week of Aug 21, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.06, roughly 4.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.8-point dispersion that is the widest in EM FX.
Share