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USD/TRY spot sits at 48.10 as of the week of August 25, 2026 — approximately 4.3% below the cross-firm median December-2026 target of 50.25, according to the full USD/TRY bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are in the consensus, and the spread between the highest and lowest year-end calls — 12.80 figures — is among the widest dispersion readings in emerging-market FX coverage.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 25, 2026): 48.10
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 (56.30 high vs. 43.50 low)
- Gap vs. spot: −4.28% (spot is well below consensus)
- Most-bullish firm on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30
- Most-bearish firm on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50
Where Does the Consensus Stand Across Desks?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Is USD/TRY Trading Well Below the Consensus Median?
The TCMB's real-rate posture is the central variable. After the policy rate was held at restrictive levels through the first half of 2026, the lira absorbed carry inflows that have kept spot suppressed relative to where most desks modelled year-end. Gross FX reserves have rebuilt materially from the depleted levels of 2023-24, reducing the urgency of managed depreciation and giving the central bank room to resist pressure on the exchange rate. Inflation, while still elevated by any developed-market standard, has traced a credible disinflation path — enough to sustain positive real rates on a forward-looking basis and attract positioning in Turkish assets.
The 4.28% gap between spot and the consensus median is not trivial in a pair that has historically depreciated at a pace well above that annually. It implies either that the market is pricing a more durable stabilisation than most sell-side models assumed when targets were set, or that the bulk of the year-end move is simply deferred into Q4. With no fresh catalyst in the past seven days, the pair is consolidating rather than resolving that question.
Which Firms Are the Outliers and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
The 12.80-point spread between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the defining feature of this consensus. That gap — roughly 27% of current spot — reflects fundamentally different assumptions about three variables: the pace of TCMB easing, the durability of the reserve rebuild, and the degree to which Turkey's current-account dynamics have structurally improved.
UBS at 43.50 and HSBC at 44.50 sit below current spot, implying further lira appreciation from here — a view that requires the real-rate premium to remain intact and reserve accumulation to continue. Both desks are bearish on USD/TRY (i.e., constructive on the lira), and at current spot their targets are already through-the-money, meaning the pair would need to reverse course for their year-end calls to be wrong.
At the other end, ING at 56.30 — the sole neutral-stance outlier — implies roughly 17% depreciation from current levels by December. That call rests on a view that disinflation stalls, the TCMB faces political pressure to ease prematurely, and reserve dynamics deteriorate as the current account widens into year-end. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 occupy the next tier, both bearish on the lira, and both embedding assumptions of a more conventional EM depreciation trajectory through Q4.
Citi at 49.50 is the only bullish-stance desk in the visible consensus, a nuanced position given that 49.50 is still above spot — the desk expects USD/TRY to rise modestly but characterises the balance of risks as USD-positive relative to the broader EM complex.
The cluster of targets between 49.00 and 52.00 — where the majority of the 18 firms sit — reflects a base case of gradual, managed depreciation consistent with TCMB allowing the real exchange rate to drift without triggering a disorderly move. That is the modal view, and at 48.10 spot is testing its lower boundary.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
As of the week of August 25, 2026, USD/TRY trades at 48.10.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/TRY at year-end 2026?
The 18-firm median December-2026 target is 50.25, implying roughly 4.5% upside in USD/TRY — or lira depreciation — from current spot levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY target and which has the lowest?
ING holds the highest published target at 56.30; UBS holds the lowest at 43.50 — a spread of 12.80 figures across the consensus.
How does the dispersion in USD/TRY forecasts compare to other EM pairs?
At 12.80 points peak-to-trough across 18 firms, USD/TRY carries the widest forecast dispersion in the EM FX consensus tracked on this platform, reflecting unresolved disagreement on TCMB policy credibility, inflation trajectory, and reserve sustainability.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the desk's detailed assumptions behind the 56.30 year-end target — the most aggressive call in the current USD/TRY consensus.
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Firms covered in this article
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Commerzbank →
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