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USD/TRY trades at 48.1174 as of August 26, 2026 — approximately 4.24% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with the full USD/TRY bank forecast table showing a 12.80-point dispersion across 18 contributing desks, the widest spread in the EM FX consensus universe.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 26, 2026): 48.1174
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 (ING at 56.30 vs UBS at 43.50)
- Gap vs spot: −4.24% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY (highest target): ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY (lowest target): UBS at 43.50
Firm Forecasts
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does Spot Trade Well Below the Dec-26 Consensus?
The 4.24% gap between spot and the 50.25 median reflects two competing forces. On the supportive side for the lira, the TCMB has maintained a positive real policy rate for several quarters — a structural departure from the pre-2023 regime — and gross FX reserves have rebuilt sufficiently to allow periodic intervention. Carry demand has kept short-term positioning skewed toward TRY longs, compressing spot below where year-end models price the cumulative depreciation path.
On the other side, the consensus is not bullish on the lira in any absolute sense. Thirteen of the 14 desks with published targets above spot are forecasting USD/TRY higher by December. The median implies roughly 4.4% additional lira depreciation from current levels. The debate is not whether TRY weakens further — the broad consensus says it does — but by how much and how fast the TCMB tolerates the move. Inflation stickiness above target keeps the real rate positive but narrower than the TCMB's stated comfort zone, and any premature easing signal would likely accelerate the depreciation path toward the upper end of the range.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Drives the 12.80-Point Spread?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-26 11:08 UTC
The 12.80-point dispersion between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the defining feature of this consensus — and it maps directly onto disagreement about the TCMB's reaction function.
ING sits alone at the top with a 56.30 target, roughly 8 points above the next-highest desk (J.P. Morgan at 53.50). ING's stance is classified as neutral rather than outright bearish on TRY, which signals the desk views the move as orderly managed depreciation rather than a disorderly unwind — but the magnitude is the most aggressive in the panel. The ING framework likely prices in a faster erosion of the real rate buffer as inflation proves stickier than the TCMB's own projections, combined with a current account trajectory that keeps reserve accumulation constrained.
At the other extreme, UBS at 43.50 and HSBC at 44.50 are the only two desks with targets below current spot. Both carry a bearish USD/TRY stance — meaning they expect the lira to strengthen, or at minimum hold, against the dollar through year-end. This view requires either a sustained real-rate premium that continues attracting carry inflows, a faster-than-expected inflation disinflation path that allows the TCMB to preserve its credibility premium, or a broader EM risk-on environment that compresses EM sovereign spreads. Citi at 49.50 is the only desk with a bullish USD/TRY stance that still prices the pair above spot — a modest depreciation call with a constructive read on near-term dollar strength rather than a structural TRY bear view.
The cluster between 50.00 and 53.50 — where Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan sit — represents the modal view: gradual, policy-managed depreciation consistent with a TCMB that tolerates lira weakness as a tool for external adjustment but resists abrupt moves that would reignite inflation expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate?
As of August 26, 2026, USD/TRY spot is 48.1174.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/TRY by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing desks is 50.25, implying approximately 4.4% additional lira depreciation from current spot levels.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters on USD/TRY?
Dispersion between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets is 12.80 points — ING at 56.30 versus UBS at 43.50 — making this the widest spread in the EM FX consensus panel.
Are any banks forecasting a stronger lira by year-end?
UBS at 43.50 and HSBC at 44.50 both carry bearish USD/TRY stances with targets below current spot, implying lira appreciation through December 2026.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive year-end USD/TRY call in the current consensus panel.
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Firms covered in this article
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Societe Generale →
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JPMorgan →
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Goldman Sachs →
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Citi →
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Commerzbank →
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UBS →
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