On this page · 4 sections▾
USD/TRY is quoted at 48.9647 as of the week of September 27, 2026, sitting 3.04% below the cross-firm median December-2026 target of 50.5 — see the full USD/TRY bank forecast table for the complete picture. Across 17 contributing desks, the range runs from 43.5 to 56.3, a dispersion of 12.8 figures that reflects genuine disagreement on how fast Turkey's disinflation path and reserve rebuild can compress the lira's structural depreciation trend.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 48.9647
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 50.5
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.8 points
- Gap vs consensus: spot is 3.04% below median — consensus bias is bullish on USD/TRY
- Highest target: ING at 56.3 (neutral stance)
- Lowest target: UBS at 43.5 (bearish stance)
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 47.5 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.5 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 50.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.5 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.5 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.5 | bearish |
| ING | 56.3 | neutral |
Why Does Spot Trade Below the Consensus Median?
The 3.04% gap between spot and the 50.5 median is not large by USD/TRY historical standards, but the direction matters: the pair is running below where the average desk expected it to be at this point in the year. The most plausible explanation is that the TCMB's real-rate posture has proven more durable than many models assumed entering 2026. With Turkish CPI still elevated but on a confirmed downward trajectory, the policy rate has remained sufficiently restrictive to sustain carry demand from offshore accounts, compressing the depreciation pace relative to earlier projections.
Reserve dynamics reinforce this. Gross reserves have rebuilt materially from the 2023–24 lows, reducing the market's perception of intervention risk and lowering the risk premium embedded in short-dated lira instruments. That combination — positive real rates, improving reserve cover — has kept the lira stronger than the structural depreciation models that anchor most year-end targets.
The consensus bias is therefore bullish on USD/TRY: the median desk still expects the pair to drift higher from current levels into year-end, pricing in some erosion of the carry advantage as the TCMB begins or continues an easing cycle. The question is how much.
Which Banks Are the Outliers, and Why Does the Dispersion Reach 12.8 Points?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Commerzbank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-27 21:05 UTC
The 12.8-point spread between ING at 56.3 and UBS at 43.5 is the defining feature of this consensus. It is not noise — it reflects three structurally different analytical frameworks applied to the same pair.
ING sits at the top with a 56.3 target and a neutral stance, implying the desk sees meaningful upside risk to USD/TRY from current levels. The ING framework likely assigns more weight to the pace of TCMB easing and the historical tendency for Turkish disinflation cycles to stall, leaving the lira vulnerable to a re-pricing of the carry trade. A move from 48.96 to 56.3 would represent roughly 15% additional depreciation — a view that demands either a policy error or a significant deterioration in the current account or reserve trajectory.
At the other end, UBS targets 43.5 with a bearish stance on USD/TRY — meaning the desk expects the lira to strengthen from here, a contrarian call that implies the current real-rate regime holds, inflation undershoots consensus, and reserve accumulation continues. That target sits 11% below spot, an unusual directional call in a currency with Turkey's structural current account deficit.
The middle of the distribution is tightly clustered: Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, and Standard Chartered all land at 50.0, while Nomura sits at the median of 50.5. This cluster suggests a base case of modest, orderly depreciation — roughly 3% from spot — consistent with a controlled easing cycle and no external shock.
J.P. Morgan at 53.5 and Deutsche Bank at 52.5 represent the more bearish end of the mainstream distribution, both pricing in a more aggressive TCMB pivot that erodes the carry premium faster than the median assumes.
Citi is notable for carrying a bullish stance at a 49.5 target — below spot — suggesting the desk expects USD/TRY to fall modestly from current levels even as the year-end target is above the UBS floor.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate?
As of the week of September 27, 2026, USD/TRY is quoted at 48.9647.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/TRY at year-end 2026?
The cross-firm median December-2026 target across 17 contributing desks is 50.5, implying modest additional lira depreciation from current spot levels.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on USD/TRY?
The dispersion between the highest target (ING at 56.3) and the lowest (UBS at 43.5) is 12.8 points — among the widest in emerging-market FX consensus, reflecting genuine uncertainty over the TCMB's easing trajectory and Turkey's inflation path.
Is the consensus bullish or bearish on USD/TRY right now?
The implied consensus bias is bullish on USD/TRY — the median target of 50.5 sits 3.04% above current spot, meaning most desks expect the pair to drift higher, i.e. the lira to weaken modestly, into year-end.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive year-end USD/TRY call in the current consensus.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 49.53, Week of October 16, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 49.53 sits 1.93% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, masking a record 12.8-point dispersion from UBS to ING.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY: 12.8-Point Dispersion Frames TCMB Real-Rate Debate
USD/TRY trades at 49.53, roughly 1.9% below the 17-firm consensus target of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point spread separating ING from UBS.
- USD/TRY
TCMB Rate Decision Preview — October 22, 2026: Street Targets 50.5
USD/TRY trades at 49.53, roughly 1.93% below the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.5, with a 12.8-point spread separating ING from UBS.
Share