EUR/USD Price Forecast: Biding its time near 1.1550, awaiting US CPI numbers
EUR/USD is currently hovering around 1.1550 as market participants anticipate key US CPI data. This data could provide critical insights into future Fed policy directions, potentially impacting dollar strength and sentiment around Euro valuations. The consensus reflects a cautious outlook, with expectations for the euro to stabilize as analysts weigh inflation readings against rate hike outcomes.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1660 (median across 10 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper boundary of 1.2200 and Citi at the lower limit of 1.1000. The sentiment is neutral across the euro with expectations placed on upcoming economic indicators that could sway sentiment either way.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs is positioned relatively optimistically with a March target of 1.1800, aligning with the more favorable views about Euro resilience. In contrast, Citi forecasts a more cautious approach with a lower target of 1.1300 for March, reflecting bearish views against the euro's near-term prospects. See our internal reports for detailed analysis: /reports/goldman and /reports/citi.
What the data shows
Recent revisions suggest a slight upward trend in expectations for the euro, with ING and Deutsche Bank adjusting their March targets to 1.1700 and 1.1800, respectively. For further insights, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-11.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1550 with a consensus target of 1.1660.
- 02Watch US CPI data closely; a higher-than-expected print could bolster the USD.
- 03Potential breakout above 1.1600 could shift sentiment favorably towards the euro.
- 04The market remains neutral overall, indicating a wait-and-see approach.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the CPI numbers due on the calendar; a deviation from expectations could lead to significant volatility. A break above 1.1600 could shift momentum towards the 1.1700 region in line with our consensus target.
Risks to this view
A slower-than-anticipated CPI figure could reinforce Fed dovishness, leading to a quick upward correction in USD and thereby undermining the bullish sentiment towards euro appreciation. Additionally, any geopolitical uncertainties could reignite dollar strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
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