EUR/USD Price Forecast: Eyes further upside towards 1.1620
The EUR/USD pair is witnessing upward momentum, targeting resistance at 1.1620 as buyers gain traction. This bullish outlook aligns with the prevailing sentiment pushing against a bearish USD, indicating a shift in market dynamics. With the current spot at 1.1419, this suggests that the recent strengthening of the EUR could challenge existing short positions that have crowded the market. The forecast from fxstreet.com emphasizes the potential for further upside, highlighting the importance of reassessing crowded trades against this backdrop.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus for EUR/USD sits at 1.1583 (median across 11 firms), where Commerzbank leads with an optimistic target of 1.1900 while Danske Bank maintains a lower expectation at 1.1100. The target range reflects a broad spectrum of outlooks, with many firms like Goldman and Deutsche Bank positioning themselves for gains, supporting the bullish view from fxstreet.com.
How firms align
Specific firms like Commerzbank and RBC are firmly aligned with the headline's sentiment, with March targets of 1.1900 and 1.1600, respectively. This is corroborated by Deutsche Bank's forecast of 1.1800, while other firms like UOB and BofA diverge with more conservative targets, cautioning against excessive bullishness. Further analysis can be found in our internal reports such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-09.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a growing consensus that supports bullish trajectories, particularly with BoFA and ING recently revising their March targets upward to 1.1700. These changes signify market participants becoming increasingly optimistic about the EUR's strength against the USD in the coming months.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets 1.1620; current spot at 1.1419 — watch for resistance at 1.1620.
- 02Position adjustments may be necessary for those holding short EUR/USD trades.
- 03Catalyst could be upcoming eurozone economic data that further bolsters the EUR's stance.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1620 level as a critical resistance point. Additionally, eurozone economic releases scheduled for the upcoming weeks could greatly influence the pair's trajectory and further validate our consensus target of 1.1583.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bullish stance could be triggered by a stronger-than-expected Fed rate hike or unexpected eurozone economic weakness, hammering the current bullish momentum. Any consistent close below 1.1400 might warrant a reassessment of long positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING
ING sees EUR/USD testing range highs with upside bias, suggesting near-term support for euro strength against dollar.
Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD rejection at resistance suggests sellers controlled upper bound; range-bound outlook implies limited directional conviction until next breakout catalyst.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.