EUR/USD Price Forecast: Range-bound trade persists below 100-day SMA
EUR/USD continues to trade within a range just below the 100-day simple moving average, reflecting a market caught between conflicting economic signals. This stagnation underscores a delicate balance where the euro struggles to capitalize on bullish expectations amidst a hawkish Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns in the Eurozone. As the pair hovers around 1.1419, traders are particularly attentive to shifts in economic forecasts and monetary policy adjustments.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.1900) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). [PUBLISHER]'s view resonates with the sentiments of firms like Morgan Stanley and ING, who see the euro struggling to break above the notable resistance posed by the 100-day SMA.
How firms align
Goldman expects a target of 1.1800 by March 2026, indicating a more optimistic view compared to the headline. In contrast, Citi's projection of 1.1300 suggests a bearish outlook that contrasts with the range-bound sentiment highlighted by the headline. These divergent views are discussed further in our internal reports, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate slight bullish inclinations, with Deutsche Bank revising their March target to 1.1800. Notable also is ING's adjustment to 1.1700, adding to the cluster of expectations centered around this level. For deeper insights, refer to our reports like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-08, which analyze these trends in greater detail.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD is 1.1419, continuing a tight range below the 100-day SMA.
- 02Traders are focused on ECB and Fed policy shifts.
- 03Watch for key resistance near 1.1450; breaking it could signal new momentum.
Market implications
Next week’s economic calendar features the ECB meeting, which may provide clarity on future rate paths and influence the EUR/USD trajectory. If our consensus target of 1.1700 gets challenged by upward momentum, it may indicate a bullish breakout.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this view could occur if the Fed signals a more aggressive tightening than anticipated, driving the USD higher. Alternatively, any unexpected economic weakness in the Eurozone could frustrate bullish expectations for the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING
ING sees EUR/USD testing range highs with upside bias, suggesting near-term support for euro strength against dollar.
Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD rejection at resistance suggests sellers controlled upper bound; range-bound outlook implies limited directional conviction until next breakout catalyst.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.