Euro: Consolidation holds in mid 1.15s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
The euro is currently consolidating around the mid-1.15s against the US dollar, reflecting a neutral sentiment in the market. Scotiabank's commentary indicates stability at these levels, though the range of forecasts suggests varying expectations among analysts. With current spot at 1.1419, this consolidation is critical as it may signal market participants' indecision, considering the upcoming economic releases and their potential impact on EUR/USD dynamics.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper end (1.1900) and Citi at the lower end (1.1300). Scotiabank's analysis aligns with this range, putting emphasis on the prevailing consolidation just above 1.14.
How firms align
Aligning with Scotiabank's view, Deutsche Bank is positioned at 1.1800 for March 2026, while Morgan Stanley is slightly more bullish with a target of 1.2000. On the contrary, BofA has a more cautious stance at 1.1700, indicating some skepticism about crossing the 1.15 threshold consistently.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions by ING and Deutsche Bank highlight a relatively stable outlook for March, both setting targets at 1.1700 and 1.1800, respectively. Our latest research, found in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, discusses how spot prices are currently diverging from consensus expectations, with a spread revealing the market's uncertainties.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Euro consolidating in mid-1.15 range; spot at 1.1419.
- 02Market indecision underscores potential volatility ahead.
- 03Upcoming economic indicators could shift sentiment drastically.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor the 1.15 level closely, as a strong data release could prompt movement either way. Our consensus target at 1.1700 may be tested in the coming sessions based on economic data releases.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected US economic report or unexpected signals from the ECB could invalidate the current neutral stance and push the euro lower, potentially breaking below 1.14.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
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