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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
The Euro is maintaining its position against the US Dollar as market participants await crucial US CPI data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. With sentiment neutral across major currencies, the EUR/USD remains stable at 1.1419. This stability is significant as traders brace for potentially market-moving inflation data that may dictate future Fed actions, creating a backdrop of uncertainty.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1583 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and MUFG at the lower (1.1800). While FXStreet notes the Euro's resilience, our numerical outlook leans towards a moderate appreciation based on these consensus figures.
Goldman's projections for the Euro show targets of 1.1800 for March and 1.2100 for June, aligning closely with the broader consensus. Meanwhile, firms like MUFG and Morgan Stanley offer higher targets, indicating a bullish sentiment that may support the Euro in light of potential CPI outcomes. More details can be found in our recent reports on Euro outlooks (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-09).
Recent adjustments from firms like Mizuho and BofA indicate a slight upward trend for EUR targets, with Mizuho now forecasting 1.1800 for March. This suggests a growing belief in the Euro's strength, further supported by our previous consensus checks (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-05).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Investors should watch the CPI print closely, as it could allow the Euro to break above the 1.15 threshold if data aligns with a less aggressive Fed. Our consensus target of 1.1583 remains pivotal in gauging market expectations.
Risks to this view
A stronger than expected CPI result could signal a more hawkish Fed stance, thereby weakening the Euro against the Dollar. Additionally, any negative revisions to growth forecasts from the Eurozone could reverse recent gains.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
How we cover this story
ING sees EUR/USD testing range highs with upside bias, suggesting near-term support for euro strength against dollar.
EUR/USD rejection at resistance suggests sellers controlled upper bound; range-bound outlook implies limited directional conviction until next breakout catalyst.
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.
Technical breakdown below key support at 1.1500 would confirm EUR/USD weakness and shift near-term momentum decisively USD-positive.
Articles FX Daily: Boring CPI, boring August? Published 07:45 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Yesterday’s unexciting US CPI print left FX with little sense of direction into the end-August Jackson Hole Symposium. What can stop
The key takeaway for positioning is that Japan's firepower is not the constraint, capacity is described as ample, so the real variable is timing and trigger rather than ability to act. Goldman's framing puts two catalysts on watch: a miss on US data that weakens the case for furt
Articles FX Daily: Dollar bears chase totality Published 07:40 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Dollar bears will be hoping that today's US July CPI release is soft enough to banish expectations of a September rate hike from the Fed.
Spot EUR/USD at 1.1535 sits 0.56% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the dollar path.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1525 sits 0.65% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 bear.
EUR/USD spot sits 0.51% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement on the pair's year-end destination.