Euro: Modest upside bias against US Dollar as Fed repricing – Rabobank
Rabobank highlights a modest upside bias for the Euro against the US Dollar, primarily driven by recent Fed repricing. This movement indicates a shift in market expectations as traders recalibrate their views on future Fed actions, implying that the Euro could see a strengthened position if this sentiment persists. As the Euro trades at 1.1419, this analysis positions it favorably among forecasts, suggesting potential for further gains.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1583 (median across 10 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and MUFG at the lower bound (1.1800). Rabobank's take aligns well with the upper-region forecasts, echoing sentiments seen from firms like Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley who are bullish on the Euro's trajectory.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs projects a March target of 1.1800, mirroring Rabobank's outlook, while firms like BofA remain more conservative with a target of 1.1700, indicating some divergence in views. For further reading, see our reports on Goldman and Commerzbank for deeper insights into their respective positions.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from UOB and BofA suggest slight upward adjustments to their targets, with UOB now at 1.1536 for March. This aligns well with our earlier insights detailing the potential for EUR/USD upside, as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-09.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1419 suggests potential for upside as Fed policies realign.
- 02Traders should monitor Fed commentary for signals influencing Euro strength.
- 03Keep an eye on a target around 1.1700, as that marks significant resistance.
Market implications
Traders should watch for movements approaching the consensus target of 1.1583 as key data from the Eurozone and upcoming Fed meetings could catalyze volatility. Any breach above 1.1700 will further reinforce the bullish outlook on the Euro.
Risks to this view
A potential shift in Fed policy or stronger than expected US economic data could reverse the current bullish sentiment towards the Euro. Additionally, a drop below supporting levels around 1.1400 would suggest a reassessment of bullish positions.
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
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