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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
Recent softer-than-expected US CPI figures bolster expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance, potentially leading to a bearish environment for the US Dollar and supporting upward momentum for the Euro. This aligns with ING's outlook that the Euro could capitalize on any USD weakness, especially as yield differentials adjust. Current positioning suggests that traders should monitor these developments closely as they could favor EUR/USD gains in the near term.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Citi at the lower (1.1000). ING's view aligns more closely with the central expectation, projecting a value of 1.1700 for March 2026.
Specific firms such as Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley project targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 respectively for March 2026, supporting the notion articulated in the ING report. Their outlook reflects an overall bullish sentiment towards the Euro amidst anticipated USD softness. For detailed views, see /research/deutschebank and /research/morganstanley.
Recent forecast revisions indicate that several firms, including ING, have pushed their EUR/USD expectations higher, now reflecting 1.1700 for March 2026. Notably, Deutsche Bank adjusted upward to 1.1800, underscoring a consensus leaning towards Euro strength. For additional context, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-11.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Investors should keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications. A decisive close above 1.1500 would suggest stronger Euro dynamics. Our consensus number of 1.1700 remains a crucial target to monitor for upward movement.
Risks to this view
A sudden turn in Fed rhetoric towards continued tightening or a more robust-than-expected inflation report could undermine this bullish view on the Euro. Key data releases in the coming weeks will be critical in shaping market sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.60
How we cover this story
ING sees EUR/USD testing range highs with upside bias, suggesting near-term support for euro strength against dollar.
EUR/USD rejection at resistance suggests sellers controlled upper bound; range-bound outlook implies limited directional conviction until next breakout catalyst.
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.
Technical breakdown below key support at 1.1500 would confirm EUR/USD weakness and shift near-term momentum decisively USD-positive.
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The key takeaway for positioning is that Japan's firepower is not the constraint, capacity is described as ample, so the real variable is timing and trigger rather than ability to act. Goldman's framing puts two catalysts on watch: a miss on US data that weakens the case for furt
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Spot EUR/USD at 1.1535 sits 0.56% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the dollar path.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1525 sits 0.65% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 bear.
EUR/USD spot sits 0.51% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement on the pair's year-end destination.