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AUD/USD traded at 0.6996 as of July 24, 2026 — effectively at the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.70 drawn from the full AUD/USD bank forecast table — but a 0.10 spread between the most- and least-bullish desks signals that the apparent consensus masks substantial disagreement on the macro drivers that govern this pair.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 24, 2026): 0.6996
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 24 firms): 0.70
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs. consensus: −0.06% (spot in line with consensus)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Société Générale | 0.67 | bullish |
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.6835 | neutral |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Danske Bank | 0.69 | neutral |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| HSBC | 0.70 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What Does the RBA-Fed Policy Gap Imply for the Rate-Spread Regime?
Each firm's Q4 2026 AUD/USD target back-solved to an implied US − AU 10y spread via covered-interest-parity. Anchored at the observed 10y rates on 2026-07-24.
Source: Goldman Sachs · Bank of America · Commerzbank · Standard Chartered +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-24 16:06 UTC
The central tension in AUD/USD pricing is the trajectory of the RBA-Fed rate differential through year-end. Desks targeting 0.70 or above — MUFG, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC — broadly price a scenario in which the Fed cuts ahead of or more aggressively than the RBA, compressing the yield advantage that has supported the US dollar. MUFG and BofA both see AUD/USD reaching 0.70 from a base they marked near 0.64, implying roughly 9.4% upside from their entry spot — a call that requires the RBA to hold rates relatively firm while the Fed eases into a slowing US labour market.
ING and Rabobank, both neutral in stance but targeting 0.73 and 0.72 respectively, sit in the upper tier without expressing a directional conviction — suggesting their models price the rate-spread shift as already partially embedded in spot, with residual upside contingent on commodity-side confirmation. Scotiabank at 0.75 is the furthest outlier on the bull side; its neutral stance at that level implies the desk treats 0.75 as a base-case destination rather than a risk scenario, which would require a materially more dovish Fed path than the median desk prices.
On the other side, Citi targets 0.67 with an explicit bearish stance — a 6.9% decline from its 0.72 entry spot — pricing a scenario in which the RBA is forced into cuts before the Fed delivers meaningful easing, narrowing the differential in the wrong direction for AUD. That view is consistent with a domestic Australia growth disappointment or a deterioration in the terms of trade.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Drives It?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · Société Générale · JPMorgan +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-24 16:06 UTC
At 0.10 between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Mizuho's 0.65 floor, the dispersion across all 24 firms in this consensus is unusually wide for a G10 pair trading near 0.70. The disagreement clusters around two variables: China's growth trajectory and iron-ore's commodity beta to AUD.
AUD/USD carries one of the most direct commodity exposures in G10 FX. Iron ore remains Australia's largest export earner, and the price path for the second half of 2026 is contested. Desks with constructive China views — anchored in stimulus follow-through and a stabilisation of the property sector — tend to sit at or above 0.70. Those pricing a more anaemic Chinese recovery, with iron-ore demand constrained by overcapacity in steel and weak property completions, gravitate toward the 0.67–0.69 band.
Société Générale presents a notable internal tension: it carries a bullish stance on AUD/USD yet targets 0.67 — below spot. That configuration reflects a desk that was bullish from a lower entry (0.65 spot at the time of publication) and has since seen the pair rally through its target. The stance label reflects the directional call at initiation, not a fresh recommendation at current levels. J.P. Morgan, similarly bullish but targeting 0.68, sits in the same position — a desk that anticipated a recovery but whose target has been overtaken by spot.
The neutral cluster — UOB, TMGM, Danske Bank, ING, Rabobank, Scotiabank — spans a 0.69 to 0.75 range, which itself illustrates that neutrality in stance does not equate to agreement on level.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD consensus target for December 2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 24 banks is 0.70, with spot at 0.6996 as of July 24, 2026 — a gap of just −0.06%.
Which bank has the most bullish AUD/USD forecast?
Scotiabank holds the highest Dec-26 target in the consensus at 0.75, implying approximately 7.2% upside from current spot.
Which bank is the most bearish on AUD/USD?
Mizuho carries the lowest target at 0.65, representing roughly 7.1% downside from the July 24, 2026 spot of 0.6996.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 24 firms — stands at 0.10, reflecting material disagreement on the RBA-Fed rate path and China commodity demand through year-end.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the rationale behind the 0.75 Dec-26 target, the most bullish call in the current 24-firm AUD/USD consensus.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
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Uob →
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Societe Generale →
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Citi →
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MUFG →
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Bank of America →
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Tmgm →
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Scotiabank →
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HSBC →
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Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Danskebank →
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ING →
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Goldman Sachs →
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Commerzbank →
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JPMorgan →
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