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AUD/USD sits at 0.7063 as of the week of August 7, 2026 — marginally above the 25-firm median Dec-26 consensus of 0.70 — with a 0.10 dispersion range across the full AUD/USD bank forecast table signalling unusually wide disagreement on where the pair ends the year.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 0.7063
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 25 firms): 0.70
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap vs consensus: spot is 0.91% above the median target — implied consensus bias is bearish
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Where Does the Consensus Stand Across Firms?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 0.67 | bullish |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Danske Bank | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| HSBC | 0.70 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.7075 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| Westpac | 0.72 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
Why Is AUD/USD Trading Above the Consensus Target?
The 0.91% premium spot commands over the 25-firm median reflects a market that has run ahead of the rate-spread arithmetic most desks are pricing. The RBA held its cash rate longer than the Fed cut, compressing the negative carry that weighed on AUD through 2024–25. As the Fed's easing cycle deepened, the rate differential narrowed, and AUD/USD recovered from sub-0.65 lows. The current spot level of 0.7063 now sits in territory that several desks — including Citi at 0.67 and Société Générale at 0.67 — regard as stretched, even though SG formally carries a bullish stance on the pair from a lower entry point.
The commodity overlay complicates the picture. Iron ore has stabilised after a prolonged drawdown tied to China's property sector deleveraging, but a durable recovery in Chinese steel demand — the primary driver of Australian bulk-commodity export revenues — has not materialised. Without a clear re-acceleration in Chinese fixed-asset investment, the commodity beta that historically amplifies AUD upswings is muted. Desks pricing targets at or below 0.70, including TMGM at 0.69 and Danske Bank at 0.69, appear to embed a scenario in which China's stimulus impulse underwhelms through year-end.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
The 0.10 range between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Mizuho's 0.65 floor is among the widest on record for a six-month AUD/USD consensus window. That spread reflects genuine model disagreement rather than stale quotes: the two variables most in contention are the pace of residual Fed cuts and the trajectory of Chinese demand.
Scotiabank at 0.75 — the highest published target — prices a scenario in which the Fed delivers additional cuts that push the USD broadly lower, while RBA holds, widening the spread in AUD's favour. The desk's neutral stance, despite the highest target, suggests conviction in the direction but limited confidence in the timing.
UBS at 0.73 and ING at 0.73 occupy the upper-middle band with bullish and neutral stances respectively, both consistent with a moderate Fed-cut path and stable Chinese data. Nomura at 0.72 is bullish, aligning with Westpac's 0.72 target, though Westpac carries a neutral stance — a divergence that illustrates how the same price level can embed different confidence intervals.
At the bearish extreme, Citi at 0.67 is the only desk in the table with an explicit bearish stance on AUD/USD itself. Citi's framework likely prices a scenario in which China's growth disappointment is more severe, iron ore resumes its decline, and the RBA is eventually forced to cut — eroding the rate support that has underpinned the pair's 2025–26 recovery. MUFG and HSBC, both at 0.70 with bullish stances, represent the consensus anchor: they see the pair gravitating back toward the median from above rather than extending gains.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD bank consensus target for December 2026?
The 25-firm median Dec-26 target is 0.70, approximately 0.91% below the current spot rate of 0.7063.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast for end-2026?
Scotiabank carries the highest published target at 0.75, representing roughly 6.2% above the 25-firm median consensus of 0.70.
Which bank has the most bearish AUD/USD forecast?
Mizuho holds the lowest target at 0.65 among the 25 firms surveyed, establishing the floor of the 0.10 dispersion range.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across 25 firms — stands at 0.10, reflecting material uncertainty over the RBA-Fed rate gap and Chinese commodity demand through year-end.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the top-target rationale and rate-spread assumptions underpinning the 0.75 Dec-26 call.
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