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Spot USD/KRW sits at 1421.57 as of the week of August 5, 2026 — 3.01% above the cross-firm median December 2026 target of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are in the consensus, and the 180-point spread between the highest and lowest targets reflects genuine regime disagreement, not noise.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 5, 2026): 1421.57
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −3.01% (spot well above)
- Most bearish on USD/KRW (lowest target): StanChart at 1280.0
- Most bullish on USD/KRW (highest target): Citi at 1460.0
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Is USD/KRW Trading Well Above the Consensus Target?
The 3.01% gap between spot and the median Dec-26 target is not trivial for a G20 EM currency. Three structural forces are keeping the pair elevated against the weight of consensus.
First, the Bank of Korea–Fed policy differential remains a headwind for the won. The BoK has been under pressure to ease ahead of the Fed, compressing the rate advantage that would ordinarily attract carry flows into KRW. Until the Fed's easing path becomes unambiguous and the BoK can credibly pause its own cuts, the rate channel offers limited support to the won.
Second, the semiconductor export cycle — the single largest driver of Korea's current account — has not yet delivered the clean reacceleration that the more aggressive KRW-bull targets require. Memory chip pricing has firmed, but order visibility beyond two quarters remains constrained by inventory digestion at major hyperscale buyers. Desks with targets below 1360, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, appear to be pricing a sharper H2 2026 upcycle in NAND and DRAM that would rebuild Korea's trade surplus and pull the won materially stronger.
Third, China beta continues to weigh. The KRW retains one of the highest sensitivities to Chinese growth momentum among Asian currencies. Subdued Chinese domestic demand and ongoing property sector drag have suppressed the commodity and intermediate-goods trade flows that historically tighten USD/KRW. Any durable China recovery read-through would compress the pair toward the consensus median faster than the BoK–Fed path alone.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Regimes Do They Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-05 21:02 UTC
The 180-point dispersion between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is the widest in the G10-adjacent EM space and reflects two incompatible macro regimes.
Citi is the sole explicitly bullish desk on USD/KRW. Its 1460 target prices a scenario where Fed cuts are shallower than the market prices, the BoK moves first and more aggressively, and China's recovery remains too shallow to generate meaningful KRW tailwinds. On that view, the won drifts weaker through year-end and spot barely moves from current levels.
At the other extreme, UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 are pricing a full-cycle KRW recovery: a Fed that cuts meaningfully, a semiconductor upcycle that rebuilds Korea's current account surplus, and China stimulus that lifts regional risk appetite. Both desks are bearish on USD/KRW by more than 120 points from spot — a move of roughly 8–9% — which would require all three tailwinds to materialise simultaneously.
ING occupies the lone neutral position at 1425, essentially a hold-spot call. That stance acknowledges the tug-of-war between BoK dovishness and export cycle improvement without committing to a directional resolution by December.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 is notable: the desk is classified bearish on USD/KRW yet its target sits only 18 points below spot, making it the most cautious of the bearish camp. The implied move is modest enough that it is functionally a near-neutral view dressed in a directional label — the desk likely sees limited catalyst for a sharp won recovery without clearer Fed guidance.
The cluster between 1370 and 1390 — where Bank of America, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, and MUFG all sit — represents the modal view: a gradual won recovery of 2–4% by year-end, driven by a measured Fed pivot and incremental semiconductor demand improvement, but not a sharp re-rating.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of August 5, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1421.57.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median December 2026 target across 18 forecasting desks is 1380.0, implying a 3.01% decline in USD/KRW from current spot — a modest won recovery if realised.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on USD/KRW?
Dispersion between the highest target (Citi at 1460.0) and the lowest (StanChart at 1280.0) is 180 points, one of the widest spreads in the current EM consensus set and a direct reflection of unresolved uncertainty around the BoK–Fed differential and China's growth trajectory.
Which bank is most bullish on the US dollar versus the Korean won?
Citi carries the highest USD/KRW target at 1460.0 and is the only desk with an explicitly bullish stance on the pair, pricing further won weakness from current spot levels through year-end.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 USD/KRW target and how it diverges from the 18-firm consensus.
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