On this page · 4 sections▾
USD/KRW sits at 1407.45 as of the week of August 8, 2026 — 1.99% above the Dec-26 cross-firm consensus of 1380, with 18 desks surveyed and a 180-point dispersion between the most and least constructive on the won; the full USD/KRW bank forecast table shows the breadth of that disagreement in detail.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 8, 2026): 1407.45
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 target (18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −1.99% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade above the consensus target?
The 1.99% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median reflects a market that is not yet pricing the won recovery most desks anticipate. Three structural forces keep the pair elevated. First, the Bank of Korea has moved cautiously relative to the Fed: the BoK trimmed rates earlier in the cycle but paused as domestic inflation proved stickier than projected, leaving the rate differential less supportive of KRW than the bearish consensus assumes. Second, semiconductor export momentum — while robust in volume terms — has not translated cleanly into won appreciation because Korean corporates have retained a larger share of export proceeds offshore, dampening the repatriation flow that historically compresses USD/KRW. Third, China beta remains a drag. Korea's export basket is heavily exposed to Chinese final demand, and persistent weakness in Chinese domestic consumption has capped the cyclical uplift that would ordinarily accompany a strong global tech upcycle. Until at least one of these three channels turns more decisively — BoK-Fed spread widening, repatriation flows picking up, or Chinese demand surprising to the upside — spot is likely to remain sticky above the consensus level.
Which banks are the outliers, and what regime does each price?
Dispersion of 180 points across 18 firms is unusually wide for a G10-adjacent pair and signals genuine regime disagreement rather than model noise. At the bearish extreme on USD/KRW, UBS targets 1300 — a level that implies a sharp won recovery and prices a scenario where Fed cuts accelerate, the BoK holds, and China stabilises enough to lift Korean export sentiment materially. HSBC at 1320 sits in the same camp, embedding a view that the semiconductor upcycle delivers a current-account surplus large enough to overwhelm residual dollar demand.
At the other end, Citi is the sole bullish outlier at 1460 — the only desk in the 14-firm visible table pricing USD/KRW above spot. Citi's regime appears to embed persistent dollar resilience, a BoK that remains on hold longer than peers expect, and continued China-related risk-off that keeps portfolio inflows into Korean equities subdued. J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC at 1430 are not bullish on the pair but their targets sit well above spot, implying limited won recovery — a middle-ground view that the pair grinds lower only gradually as macro headwinds ease slowly rather than sharply.
ING is the lone neutral desk at 1425, a posture that reflects balanced risks: modest won appreciation is possible but the desk is unwilling to commit to a directional call given the unresolved China demand picture and uncertainty around the timing of Fed easing.
How does the semiconductor cycle and China beta shape the dispersion?
The widest disagreements in the table map almost perfectly onto differing assumptions about two variables: the pace of AI-driven semiconductor demand and the trajectory of Chinese activity data. Desks with sub-1350 targets — Deutsche Bank at 1350, Morgan Stanley at 1360 — appear to embed a scenario where Korean memory and logic chip exports sustain elevated pricing power through year-end, generating a current-account surplus that mechanically bids KRW. The China beta assumption in these models is that Beijing's stimulus measures deliver at least a partial demand recovery in H2 2026, reducing the drag on Korean intermediate goods exports. Desks clustered around the 1380–1390 median — Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, Société Générale — price a more moderate version of the same thesis. Citi's outlier bullish call on USD/KRW is the clearest expression of a bearish China view combined with a less optimistic read on the Fed's willingness to cut aggressively.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate as of August 8, 2026?
USD/KRW spot is 1407.45 as of the week of August 8, 2026, placing it 1.99% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus target of 1380.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 surveyed desks is 1380.0, implying a bearish bias — the consensus expects USD/KRW to fall from current levels, meaning won appreciation against the dollar.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target and which has the lowest?
Citi holds the highest Dec-26 target at 1460, while StanChart anchors the low end at 1280 — a 180-point spread that reflects genuine regime disagreement on the BoK-Fed path and China demand.
How many banks are in the USD/KRW consensus panel?
Eighteen firms contribute to the consensus; the snapshot statistics — median, dispersion, and top and bottom targets — are computed across all 18, though the table above displays the 14 most recently updated desks.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the desk's detailed rationale behind the 1460 Dec-26 target — the most bullish USD/KRW call in the current 18-firm panel.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/KRW
More from USD/KRW
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: Spot at 1419.88, Week of August 7, 2026
USD/KRW trades at 1419.88, nearly 2.9% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling deep regime disagreement.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: Spot at 1423.55, Week of August 6, 2026
Spot USD/KRW sits 3.16% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion range signalling deep regime disagreement.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: Spot at 1421.57, Week of August 5, 2026
USD/KRW trades 3.01% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the won's path.
Share