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Spot USD/KRW traded at 1423.55 as of August 6, 2026 — 3.16% above the 18-firm median December-2026 consensus target of 1380, a gap that reflects persistent won weakness against a broadly bearish cross-firm view; the full USD/KRW bank forecast table captures the complete distribution across all contributing desks. Dispersion of 180 points between the highest and lowest published targets is among the widest in G10-adjacent EM, underscoring genuine regime disagreement rather than minor timing differences.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 6, 2026): 1423.55
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (18 firms, median): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs. consensus: −3.16% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade above the consensus target?
The 3.16% gap between spot and the 18-firm median is not noise. Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published targets sit below current spot, yet the pair has failed to retrace. Three structural forces explain the stickiness.
First, the Bank of Korea–Fed policy divergence has not resolved cleanly. The BoK entered 2026 with room to ease given subdued domestic demand and a property sector still absorbing prior rate hikes; the Fed, by contrast, has moved cautiously on cuts, keeping the rate differential wider than most desks assumed when they set year-end targets. Until the Fed delivers a credible easing sequence, the carry argument for holding KRW is limited.
Second, the semiconductor export cycle — the single largest driver of Korea's current account — has been uneven. Memory pricing recovered through H1 2026, but the recovery has been concentrated in high-bandwidth memory for AI infrastructure rather than broad DRAM or NAND volumes. That skew benefits a narrow set of exporters and generates lumpy rather than sustained dollar repatriation, reducing the mechanical current-account support the won typically receives during upcycles.
Third, China beta continues to weigh. KRW remains one of the highest-beta proxies to Chinese growth sentiment in Asia EM. With Chinese domestic demand disappointing relative to consensus forecasts set in late 2025, the risk-on impulse that would normally compress USD/KRW has been absent. Desks that assumed a more robust China recovery — and priced targets in the 1300–1350 range — are furthest offside.
Which desks are the outliers and what regime do they price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-06 16:06 UTC
Dispersion of 180 points across 18 firms is the headline figure, but the distribution is skewed: the bulk of desks cluster between 1360 and 1400, with two clear outliers at either extreme.
Citi at 1460 is the sole bullish desk in the published set. Its target sits 80 points above the median and prices a regime in which Fed cuts remain shallow, BoK easing accelerates, and China-linked risk sentiment stays suppressed through year-end. At current spot of 1423.55, Citi's target implies only modest further won depreciation — roughly 2.6% — making it the least directionally aggressive of the USD/KRW bulls, but the only desk formally positioned for continued weakness.
At the other end, UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 price an aggressive KRW recovery — 8.7% and 7.3% from spot respectively. Both desks appear to embed a scenario in which the Fed pivots more decisively in H2 2026, semiconductor export revenues broaden beyond AI-specific demand, and China stimulus delivers a durable growth impulse. From current spot, those targets require a move of a magnitude not seen in USD/KRW outside of acute risk-off reversals.
ING occupies the only neutral slot at 1425 — effectively a hold call, with a target just 1.05 points above spot. That positioning reflects a view that the competing forces — BoK easing pressure versus semiconductor tailwinds — roughly offset, leaving the pair range-bound into year-end rather than trending in either direction.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 sits in bearish territory on the pair but with a target still above the median, suggesting the desk sees only limited won recovery and is more cautious than the consensus on the pace of USD/KRW compression.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of August 6, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1423.55.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The 18-firm median December-2026 target is 1380.0, implying a 3.16% decline in USD/KRW from current spot — equivalent to won appreciation against the dollar.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion between the highest published target (Citi at 1460) and the lowest (StanChart at 1280) is 180 points, one of the wider spreads in the current EM FX consensus cycle.
Which bank is most bearish on USD/KRW and which is most bullish?
StanChart holds the lowest target at 1280, pricing the most aggressive won recovery. Citi holds the highest at 1460, the only desk formally positioned for further won weakness from current levels.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 year-end target and how it diverges from the 18-firm consensus.
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