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USD/KRW spot sits at 1419.88 as of the week of August 7, 2026 — well above the 18-firm median December-2026 target of 1380.0, implying the broad consensus still prices a won recovery from current levels; the full USD/KRW bank forecast table shows a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks, a dispersion wide enough to reflect genuine regime disagreement rather than noise.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 7, 2026): 1419.88
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Gap vs spot: −2.89% (spot trades above consensus)
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0 (expects pair to rise)
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0 (expects pair to fall)
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade above the consensus target?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks publishing targets below spot are priced for a won recovery by year-end, yet spot at 1419.88 is holding nearly three points above the median. The gap reflects a policy divergence that has not yet closed: the Bank of Korea has moved more cautiously than the Fed on rate normalisation, leaving the real-rate differential less supportive of KRW than the consensus models assumed when targets were set. The semiconductor export cycle is the second variable. Korea's trade account is structurally sensitive to global memory and logic chip demand; any softening in the AI-infrastructure capex wave — the primary driver of DRAM and HBM volumes through 2025 — delays the current-account tailwind that underpins the bearish USD/KRW thesis held by the majority of desks. China beta compounds the picture: KRW retains one of the highest CNY-correlation coefficients in EM Asia, and persistent uncertainty around Chinese domestic demand has capped the won's recovery potential even when the dollar has softened on a DXY basis. Until the BoK signals a credible easing pause or semiconductor export data reaccelerates, the spot-to-consensus gap is unlikely to close quickly.
Which desks are the outliers and what regimes do they price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-07 06:02 UTC
The 180-point dispersion between Citi at 1460.0 and StanChart at 1280.0 is the widest in the current consensus panel and maps to two distinct macro regimes. Citi's bullish USD/KRW call — the only unambiguously bullish stance among the fourteen firms listed — prices a scenario where the Fed holds rates higher for longer than the market discounts, the BoK is forced into pre-emptive cuts to support a slowing domestic economy, and China's demand recovery remains anaemic, keeping Korean export momentum subdued. That combination keeps the won under pressure and USD/KRW elevated or drifting higher toward 1460. At the other end, StanChart's 1280 target prices an aggressive Fed easing cycle, a semiconductor supercycle that drives Korea's current account into substantial surplus, and a Chinese stimulus package sufficient to lift regional risk appetite. Between those poles, the cluster of desks in the 1350–1395 range — including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Nomura, and MUFG — price a moderate won recovery consistent with a gradual Fed pivot and stable but unspectacular chip demand. J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC Capital Markets at 1430 sit closest to spot on the bearish side, effectively pricing very limited won appreciation — a view consistent with a drawn-out BoK-Fed differential and China risk staying elevated through year-end. ING at 1425 with a neutral stance is the only desk not committing to directional conviction, reflecting uncertainty around the BoK's reaction function.
What would shift the consensus?
Three catalysts have the highest probability of forcing target revisions across the panel. First, a Fed pivot that is faster or deeper than the current dot-plot implies would compress the interest-rate differential and provide the most direct support for the won, validating the sub-1350 targets held by UBS and HSBC. Second, a sustained rebound in Korean semiconductor exports — particularly HBM and advanced DRAM shipments to US hyperscalers — would widen the current-account surplus and generate structural won demand, the mechanism most desks in the 1360–1390 cluster are relying on. Third, a credible Chinese stimulus programme that lifts PMI data and industrial output would tighten the KRW-CNY correlation in a won-positive direction, reducing the China-beta drag that has weighed on the currency through 2026. Conversely, a re-escalation of US-Korea trade friction, a BoK surprise cut, or a sharp correction in global chip equities would push spot toward Citi's 1460 target and force the bearish majority to revise upward.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of August 7, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1419.88.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median December-2026 target across 18 firms is 1380.0, approximately 2.89% below current spot, implying the consensus expects the won to strengthen modestly from here.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on USD/KRW?
Dispersion between the highest target (Citi at 1460.0) and the lowest (StanChart at 1280.0) is 180 points — an unusually wide spread that reflects genuine divergence on the Fed path, the semiconductor cycle, and China's growth trajectory.
Which bank is most bullish on USD/KRW and which is most bearish?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0, pricing further won weakness; StanChart holds the lowest at 1280.0, pricing a substantial won recovery by December 2026.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the rationale behind the panel's most bullish USD/KRW target.
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