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USD/TRY spot sits at 47.537 as of August 3, 2026 — well below the 18-firm cross-desk median Dec-26 target of 50.25, a gap of roughly 5.4% that signals broad sell-side conviction for further lira depreciation; the full USD/TRY bank forecast table captures the complete range, which spans 12.80 points from floor to ceiling — the widest dispersion in the EM FX consensus universe tracked here.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 3, 2026): 47.537
- Cross-firm consensus — Dec-26 median (18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Gap vs spot: −5.40% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY (highest target): ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY (lowest target): UBS at 43.50
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade Below Consensus Despite a Bearish Skew?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published stances are bearish on the lira — that is, they expect USD/TRY to rise from current levels. The 5.4% gap between spot (47.537) and the Dec-26 median (50.25) is therefore not a puzzle of disagreement but of timing: the depreciation path the consensus prices is gradual, consistent with the TCMB's managed-float framework, which has kept the lira on a controlled glide rather than a disorderly slide.
The TCMB's real-rate stance is the fulcrum. With Turkish CPI still elevated, the policy rate needs to remain restrictive in real terms to prevent a renewed inflation spiral. So long as the central bank delivers on that commitment — and refrains from premature easing ahead of the disinflation target — the carry trade retains enough yield to slow the pace of lira depreciation. The consensus median of 50.25 implies roughly 5.7% further weakening from spot by year-end, a pace that is steep in absolute terms but orderly relative to Turkey's historical volatility.
Reserve dynamics add a second constraint. Gross FX reserves have been rebuilt materially since the 2023 trough, giving the TCMB meaningful capacity to smooth disorderly moves. That buffer is not unlimited, but it is sufficient to deter speculative attacks at the margin — a factor that helps explain why spot has lagged the depreciation path that most sell-side models would otherwise project.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Drives the 12.80-Point Spread?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-03 11:08 UTC
The 12.80-point dispersion between ING (56.30) and UBS (43.50) is, by any EM FX standard, exceptional. It reflects genuine model divergence on three variables: the pace of disinflation, the durability of the TCMB's orthodox commitment, and the trajectory of the current-account deficit.
ING carries a neutral stance but holds the highest target in the panel at 56.30 — implying an 18.4% move from current spot. The desk's framework appears to assign a higher probability to fiscal slippage or a premature rate cut that reignites inflation, which would force a sharper nominal adjustment. At the other extreme, UBS targets 43.50, below current spot, arguing that real-rate discipline and reserve accumulation could produce modest nominal lira appreciation — a view shared to a lesser degree by HSBC at 44.50.
Citi is the only desk in the panel with an explicitly bullish stance on USD/TRY (target 49.50), meaning it expects the lira to weaken but frames the risk as skewed toward a faster depreciation than the consensus median captures. J.P. Morgan (53.50), Deutsche Bank (52.50), and Morgan Stanley (52.00) cluster in the upper quartile of the distribution, reflecting a shared view that the inflation trajectory will prove stickier than the TCMB's baseline, requiring a longer period of elevated nominal rates that still fails to prevent meaningful lira weakness.
The tightest cluster sits between 49.00 and 51.00 — Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Nomura, RBC Capital Markets, and Bank of America — which effectively defines the consensus core. For most of these desks, the base case is a continuation of the controlled depreciation trend at roughly 1–1.5% per month, with the TCMB maintaining positive real rates throughout.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
As of August 3, 2026, USD/TRY trades at 47.537.
What is the sell-side consensus target for USD/TRY by end-2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 18 desks is 50.25, implying approximately 5.4% further lira depreciation from current spot.
How wide is the dispersion in USD/TRY forecasts?
The spread between the highest target (ING at 56.30) and the lowest (UBS at 43.50) is 12.80 points — among the widest in the EM FX consensus panel.
How many banks are in the USD/TRY consensus?
The consensus is drawn from 18 firms; the table above shows the 14 most recently updated desks.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the panel's highest USD/TRY target and the framework behind the 56.30 year-end call.
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