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USD/TRY is quoted at 47.5245 against an 18-firm cross-bank median year-end target of 50.25 — a gap of roughly 5.4% — with the full USD/TRY bank forecast table showing a 12.80-point spread between the most and least bearish desks, the widest dispersion in the tracked EM FX universe.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 2, 2026): 47.5245
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Gap vs spot: −5.42% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Most bearish on TRY — highest USD/TRY target: ING at 56.30
- Most bullish on TRY — lowest USD/TRY target: UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade so far below the consensus target?
The 5.4% gap between spot and the 50.25 median reflects a lira that has depreciated more slowly than the sell-side anticipated when these targets were set. The TCMB's real-rate stance is the central variable. After the aggressive tightening cycle that brought the policy rate into clearly positive real territory, the central bank has held rates at levels that continue to attract carry demand and support portfolio inflows into Turkish fixed income. As long as the TCMB maintains that posture and inflation continues its — admittedly uneven — descent, the mechanical depreciation path implied by most models runs ahead of what the spot rate is delivering.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the picture. Gross reserves have rebuilt materially from the lows recorded during the 2021–2023 period when the central bank was running large swap-adjusted net short positions. A stronger reserve buffer reduces the perceived tail risk of a disorderly adjustment, compressing the risk premium embedded in forward points and, by extension, the pace of spot depreciation. Most desks — 13 of the 14 listed here carry a bearish stance on TRY, meaning they expect USD/TRY to rise — are not disputing the direction; they are disputing the pace.
Inflation trajectory is the swing factor. If the disinflation path stalls — a recurring feature of Turkish macro cycles — the TCMB faces pressure to cut rates prematurely, eroding the real-rate anchor. That scenario would compress the gap between spot and consensus rapidly. Conversely, a sustained decline in CPI toward single digits would validate the lira's current relative stability and push year-end outcomes toward the lower end of the distribution.
Which banks are the outliers and what explains the 12.80-point dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-02 16:02 UTC
The 12.80-point spread between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is not noise — it reflects genuinely divergent macro assumptions about Turkey's policy credibility horizon.
UBS sits at the bullish extreme for TRY. A 43.50 year-end target from a spot of 47.52 implies TRY appreciation — a view that requires confidence in both the TCMB's commitment to positive real rates and continued disinflation. HSBC at 44.50 occupies similar territory. These are minority positions; both targets sit below current spot, meaning these desks are calling for lira strength from here.
At the other extreme, ING carries a neutral stance with a 56.30 target — implying roughly 18.5% depreciation from current levels by December. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 cluster nearby, reflecting a more sceptical read on Turkey's ability to sustain the disinflation narrative through an election-sensitive political calendar and persistent current account pressures.
The middle of the distribution — Société Générale and Goldman Sachs both at 50.00, Nomura and RBC at 50.50 — anchors the median at 50.25. These desks see a gradual, orderly depreciation consistent with a positive but narrowing real-rate differential. Citi at 49.50 is the sole bullish-stance outlier among the named firms, a distinction worth monitoring given Citi's historically active Turkey coverage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate and where do banks expect it to end 2026?
USD/TRY is quoted at 47.5245 as of August 2, 2026. The median year-end target across 18 sell-side firms is 50.25, implying roughly 5.4% further depreciation from current spot.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters on USD/TRY?
Dispersion across the 18-firm panel is 12.80 points — the distance between ING's 56.30 high and UBS's 43.50 low. That range is among the widest in the tracked EM FX universe and reflects genuine disagreement about Turkey's policy credibility, not simply model differences.
Is the consensus bullish or bearish on the Turkish lira?
The implied consensus bias is bullish on USD/TRY — meaning bearish on TRY. Thirteen of the 14 listed desks carry a bearish TRY stance, and the median target of 50.25 sits above current spot. The direction of travel is not in dispute; the pace of depreciation is.
Which firm has the most extreme USD/TRY forecast?
ING holds the highest target in the consensus at 56.30, implying approximately 18.5% depreciation from the August 2 spot. UBS holds the lowest at 43.50, which would represent TRY appreciation from current levels.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most bearish year-end USD/TRY call in the current 18-firm consensus.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
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UBS →
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ING →
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Nomura →
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Bank of America →
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Societe Generale →
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Citi →
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MUFG →
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HSBC →
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Goldman Sachs →
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Commerzbank →
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JPMorgan →
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Morgan Stanley →
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Deutsche Bank →
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RBC →
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