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USD/TRY sits at 47.55 as of August 4, 2026 — roughly 5.4% below the 18-firm median year-end target of 50.25, according to the full USD/TRY bank forecast table. The spread between the most aggressive and most conservative calls spans 12.80 figures, a dispersion that is exceptional even by emerging-market standards.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 47.5466
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 figures
- Gap vs spot: −5.38% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY — ING: 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY — UBS: 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade well below the consensus target?
The gap between spot and the 50.25 median is not a puzzle of positioning alone — it reflects the TCMB's sustained real-rate posture. Since the policy reversal in mid-2023, the central bank has maintained a meaningfully positive real policy rate, running inflation down from triple-digit peaks. With headline CPI still elevated but on a declining trajectory, the carry embedded in TRY has attracted inflows that have compressed spot below where most desks modelled it at the start of the year.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the story. Gross FX reserves have rebuilt materially, reducing the vulnerability to sudden stop scenarios that dominated the 2021–2022 narrative. The TCMB has also been more willing to allow two-way volatility rather than defend a crawling-peg pace, which has paradoxically encouraged carry traders who previously feared abrupt resets. The result: spot has drifted to 47.55 while the median bank target sits nearly three figures higher at 50.25 — a 5.38% gap that implies the consensus still expects meaningful lira depreciation before year-end, just not as much as many desks pencilled in earlier in the year.
Which banks are the outliers, and what drives the 12.80-point dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-04 16:04 UTC
The 12.80-figure spread between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the widest in the 18-firm panel and reflects genuine disagreement about the durability of Turkey's disinflation and the TCMB's willingness to hold the real-rate line through an election cycle.
ING, the top-target firm at 56.30, carries a neutral stance despite the high absolute level — the desk appears to be marking the pair for a sharper depreciation path in H2 while acknowledging that near-term carry support could delay the move. At the other extreme, UBS at 43.50 and HSBC at 44.50 are the most constructive on TRY, both carrying bearish USD/TRY stances. Their thesis rests on the TCMB sustaining a real rate that continues to attract portfolio inflows, combined with a current account adjustment that has reduced the structural dollar demand that previously kept a floor under the pair.
The bulk of the 18-firm panel clusters between 49.00 and 53.50 — Commerzbank at 49.00, Citi at 49.50, Goldman Sachs and Société Générale both at 50.00, Nomura and RBC at 50.50, Bank of America at 51.00, MUFG and Morgan Stanley at 52.00, Deutsche Bank at 52.50, and J.P. Morgan at 53.50. The modal view is that the lira depreciates at a controlled pace as the TCMB gradually eases, but that the pace of easing is constrained by still-elevated services inflation and the need to maintain credibility.
Notably, 13 of the 14 listed desks carry a bearish USD/TRY stance — meaning they expect the pair to rise from current spot, consistent with continued lira weakness. Citi is the sole bullish outlier in the listed panel, targeting 49.50 but flagging that near-term TRY strength could extend before the depreciation trend reasserts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate as of August 4, 2026?
USD/TRY is trading at 47.5466 as of the August 4, 2026 consensus check — well below the 18-firm median year-end target of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY at end-2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 18 institutions is 50.25, implying approximately 5.7% further depreciation from current spot levels if consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY target and which has the lowest?
ING holds the top target at 56.30; UBS holds the bottom at 43.50 — a 12.80-figure spread that represents the widest dispersion in the current EM FX consensus panel.
How does the TCMB's real-rate stance affect the USD/TRY outlook?
A sustained positive real policy rate has compressed spot below consensus by attracting carry inflows and rebuilding reserves; most desks still expect gradual lira depreciation as the TCMB eases, but the pace and timing of that easing is the primary source of the 12.80-point forecast dispersion.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive year-end USD/TRY call in the current 18-firm consensus.
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