E-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over
The desk interprets the latest insights on e-commerce dynamics post-COVID as indicative of a longer-term structural growth trajectory for online retail, potentially revitalized by demographic trends. Per the full note from Nordea, while there has been a natural easing of the explosive growth witnessed during the pandemic, technologic and demographic shifts suggest that the online share of retail sales will start to recover its growth trend. Current EUR/USD trading at 1.1679 reflects general market sentiments, yet, as multiple firms project gradual appreciation to the 1.20 range by the end of 2026, the outlook remains cautiously bullish.
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the shift towards e-commerce is set to resume its structural growth, fueled by a blend of technological advancement and demographic changes. According to Nordea's commentary, the pandemic enhanced technological adoption among consumers, laying the groundwork for sustained future growth in online retail.
Supporting this view, card transaction data analyzed by Nordea suggests that despite recent stabilization, e-commerce retains strong underlying momentum, with a recovery poised to reinvigorate growth trends seen earlier in the pandemic. The view is aligned with forecasts from institutions suggesting EUR/USD may rise to levels as high as 1.20 by the end of 2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD places it at 1.1700 for March 2026, with a range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000. Notably, firms such as commerzbank and barclays forecast even more bullish positions, with targets sitting at 1.2200 and 1.2100 respectively for the same time frame.
The desk's analysis aligns most closely with deutschebank's forecast of 1.2500 for December 2026, filling the upper bounds of the current consensus while indicating a positive outlook for the euro against the dollar. This intersection of growth expectations between retail and currency suggests a fortified bullish sentiment for EUR/USD, especially as e-commerce recovers post-pandemic.
How other firms see it
Aligned viewpoints can be observed among firms such as commerzbank, barclays, and morganstanley, all projecting upward momentum for EUR/USD. Conversely, citi and bnpparibas reflect a more cautious stance, predicting weaker euro valuation with targets of 1.1300 and 1.0800, respectively.
The trajectory of EUR/USD mirrors overall movements in market sentiment tied to broader economic recovery themes; thus, monitoring the interplay between e-commerce growth and Federal Reserve interest rate policy will be crucial for future positioning.
What the calendar says
There are no high-impact events scheduled in the next 30 days that could influence this dynamic directly, which positions the desk's analysis firmly on qualitative momentum rather than immediate catalysts. However, keeping an eye on broader shifts in central bank policies will be vital moving forward.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The e-commerce growth trajectory post-COVID remains promising, supported by demographic shifts and new technology adoption.
- 02Current estimates suggest potential recovery and growth trends for retail sales online as highlighted by Nordea's research.
- 03Consensus target for EUR/USD is set at 1.1700 for March 2026, with several firms projecting even higher targets.
- 04The outlook for EUR/USD exhibits a positive relationship with underlying economic recovery themes in e-commerce.
Market implications
Traders should monitor key levels around 1.1700 for EUR/USD as it aligns with expectations for a more prolonged recovery in e-commerce trends. Positioning could change notably if economic indicators reflect stronger-than-expected consumer spending or shifts in central bank policies.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could come from disappointing retail sales data or a significant change in central bank stance, primarily if the ECB indicates a more hawkish policy compared to the Fed, adversely affecting the euro's relative strength.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
Podcast E-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over 06-09-2022 Retail sales have been migrating online from stores for years. The pandemic gave a big boost to this migration, which has now eased off. In this Nordea On Your Mind podcast, Johan Trocmé and Viktor Sonebäck talk about what will come next, how the online share of retail sales could resume its structural growth trend, with demographics as a key driver.
We wanted to show you a Spotify but you cannot see it as you have not enabled cookies Click here to update your consent Explore our publications about E-commerce Did the Covid-19 pandemic have a lasting impact on the growth of e-commerce and the online migration of retail sales? Will the trend continue? In the latest Nordea On Your Mind, the Thematics team analyses Nordea’s trove of card transaction data to get answers.
E-commerce: A return to the structural growth trajectory Pandemic overdrive for e-commerce Podcast: E-commerce and Corona with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and BHG Group Online food retail is all about convenience The pandemic has forced people to become more technologically advanced The last mile is no longer driven in the dark Get the report Top decision makers at Nordea’s large clients across the Nordic region receive Nordea On Your Mind around eight times per year. If you are a corporate client and want to access the full Nordea On Your Mind report, please contact viktor.soneback [at] nordea.com (Viktor Sonebäck) Share on Facebook Share on Threads Share on Linkedin 30-10-2025 Markets and investment Nordea to offer customers access to an exchange-traded product tracking Bitcoin As the European regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies has matured and the demand for virtual currencies and cryptocurrencies is growing across the Nordics, Nordea has decided to allow customers to trade in a crypto-linked product on its platforms. Read more 15-09-2025 Markets and investment Nordic cleantech: An infrastructure bonanza for Europe Our analysis of the main public infrastructure programmes in Europe points to a substantial step-up in investment due in 2026, which contrasts with the capital drain we’re seeing for US cleantech.
This is driving investors’ sentiment for infrastructure, which, for the first time in years in Q2 2025, was higher in Europe than in the US, topped by the Nordics. Read more 12-09-2025 Corporate insights Sweden’s economic resilience drives new business Despite global uncertainties, Sweden’s robust economic fundamentals pave the way for an increase in corporate transaction activity in the second half of 2025. Nordea’s view is that interest rates are likely to remain low, and our experts accordingly expect a pickup in deals.
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