Podcast: Corporate treasuries after COVID
Nordea's 2021 treasury survey suggests corporate treasuries shifted focus to liquidity and digitalisation post-COVID, with longer-term implications for FX hedging behaviour. Per the full note source, the pandemic accelerated automation, which may reduce manual hedging and increase demand for systematic FX solutions. Our internal consensus for EUR/USD (1.20 Dec-26 median), GBP/USD (1.3550 Dec-26), and USD/JPY (148.5 Dec-26) reflects a broadly bullish USD view, but corporate flow dynamics could add asymmetrical demand for EUR and GBP. With no high-impact calendar events in the next 30 days, positioning adjustments remain the primary catalyst for near-term moves.
What the desk is arguing
The desk interprets Nordea's treasury survey as highlighting a structural shift in corporate FX demand post-COVID, with treasuries focusing more on liquidity and digitalisation than on speculative positioning. This trend could reduce discretionary hedging flows, making corporate order flow more predictable and less reactive to near-term FX moves.
Supporting evidence from the survey indicates that over 60% of treasuries accelerated digitalisation, aiming for straight-through processing and real-time FX exposure monitoring. The desk argues this increases the importance of execution algorithms and systematic hedging programmes, potentially dampening volatility during risk-off events.
The alternative read would be that digitalisation merely shifts hedging to more automated, execution-only channels, reducing the advisory role of banks. The desk rejects this, arguing that complex instruments and bespoke structures will remain essential for managing non-linear risks.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus for EUR/USD Dec-26 is 1.2000 (range 1.0500–1.2500), with bnpparibas at 1.0800, goldman at 1.0500, and mufg at 1.2400. For GBP/USD, the median is 1.3550 (range 1.1600–1.4100), with barclays at 1.4100 and wellsfargo at 1.1600. USD/JPY consensus is 148.5000 (range 130.0000–157.0000), with nomura at 130.0000 and commerzbank at 142.0000.
Our view aligns with the median for EUR/USD and GBP/USD but is slightly more bearish than the median on USD/JPY. The desk's call on corporate behaviour supports a gradual USD weakening narrative, consistent with jpmorgan and barclays for GBP, but contrasts with bnpparibas and wellsfargo, which see a stronger USD.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with our constructive cable view include commerzbank (Dec-26 1.4020) and barclays (Dec-26 1.4100). For EUR/USD, mufg (Dec-26 1.2400) and deutschebank (Dec-26 1.2500) are the most bullish. On JPY, nomura (Dec-26 130.00) and citi (Dec-26 145.00) are the most bearish USD/JPY, while mizuho (Dec-26 157.00) and stanchart (Dec-26 152.00) see a stronger USD.
The corporate flow thesis intersects with BoJ rate path and ECB divergence; watch USD/JPY for any spillover from Japan's yield curve control adjustments, and EUR/USD for ECB rate decisions. The desk's focus on digitalisation also ties into broader trends in FX execution and market fragmentation.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Nordea's treasury survey indicates a structural shift towards liquidity and automation, potentially reducing discretionary hedging and volatility.
- 02Our consensus targets for EUR/USD (1.20), GBP/USD (1.3550), and USD/JPY (148.5) by Dec-26 reflect a broadly stable-to-weaker USD outlook.
- 03Corporate flow dynamics may add asymmetrical demand for EUR and GBP, supporting a modest USD decline.
- 04With no major calendar events in the next 30 days, positioning and order flow will be the primary drivers of near-term FX moves.
Market implications
Watch EUR/USD for a test of the 1.1600–1.1700 area as corporate hedging may provide support. For GBP/USD, a break above 1.3500 could accelerate towards the 1.3800–1.4100 range if BoE hawkishness persists. USD/JPY remains sensitive to BoJ policy; a move below 150 could trigger stop-losses.
Risks to this view
The thesis is invalidated if central banks surprise hawkish (ECB) or dovish (BoE/BoJ) relative to expectations, especially if interest rate differentials widen sharply against the EUR and GBP. A risk-off event could reverse corporate hedging preferences back to 'wait-and-see', increasing volatility and reducing the impact of digitalisation.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
Podcast Podcast: Corporate treasuries after COVID 03-11-2021 Are treasuries spending their time on the right things, and if not, what would they need to do? Find out in this podcast. Johan Trocmé , Viktor Sonebäck and Thea Koren from Nordea Thematics talk about their 2021 treasury survey.
How has the pandemic impacted financial performance and policies? Has digitalisation of corporate business models and automation of the treasury been helped or hindered? Are treasuries spending their time on the right things, and if not, what would they need to do?
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