UBS Australian US Dollar Q3 2026 Forecast: RBA Caution In Evidence, AUD/USD At 0.72 - Exchange Rates Org UK
The desk anticipates a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep the AUD/USD at 0.72 through Q3 2026. Per the full note from UBS, this forecast reflects the RBA's ongoing hesitance to aggressively raise interest rates amid global economic uncertainties. The desk supports this view by highlighting the RBA's recent comments and the broader economic landscape, which suggest that the Australian dollar may struggle against the US dollar in the near term.
What the desk is arguing
UBS argues that the RBA's cautious stance on rate cuts, amid persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, will support the Australian dollar. The bank projects AUD/USD reaching 0.72 by Q3 2026, implying significant upside from current levels near 0.64.
This forecast is underpinned by expectations that the RBA will maintain higher-for-longer rates relative to other major central banks, particularly the Fed. UBS sees this interest rate differential as a key driver for AUD appreciation over the medium term.
The desk implicitly rejects the view that the RBA will be forced to cut rates aggressively in response to a global economic slowdown. Instead, it believes Australia's commodity exports and fiscal position provide a buffer against external shocks.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our Dec26 consensus stands at 0.70, with a range from 0.68 (Barclays, JPMorgan) to 0.73 (ING). UBS's 0.72 target sits above the consensus but within the upper half of the range. It aligns with the more bullish end of our coverage, particularly ING's high-end forecast.
Specific firm targets for Dec26 include: - ING: 0.73 - Deutsche Bank: 0.72 - Morgan Stanley: 0.71 - Goldman Sachs, MUFG, BofA: 0.70 - Barclays: 0.69 - JPMorgan: 0.68
UBS's view is most closely aligned with Deutsche Bank's 0.72 target, while notably above JPMorgan and Barclays' more cautious outlooks.
How other firms see it
ING is the most bullish among our coverage, with a Dec26 target of 0.73, even above UBS's 0.72. This aligns with a similarly hawkish RBA view. Deutsche Bank also shares a similar optimistic outlook at 0.72.
On the other hand, Barclays and JPMorgan are more cautious, with Dec26 targets of 0.69 and 0.68, respectively. They likely anticipate a more dovish RBA pivot, contrasting with UBS's conviction. Goldman Sachs, MUFG, and BofA sit near the 0.70 consensus, reflecting a more neutral stance that does not fully endorse the aggressive rally UBS expects.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01UBS forecasts AUD/USD at 0.72 by Q3 2026, above consensus of 0.70.
- 02RBA caution and higher-for-longer rates are key drivers.
- 03The view is most aligned with ING (0.73) and Deutsche Bank (0.72), and contrary to Barclays (0.69) and JPMorgan (0.68).
Market implications
If UBS's view materializes, AUD/USD would rally 12.5% from current 0.64, suggesting long positions may be attractive. This would imply relative outperformance of AUD vs USD, benefiting Australian exports but pressuring importers. It also signals potential for carry trades given RBA rate differentials.
Risks to this view
Downside risks include a sharper-than-expected global slowdown that forces RBA to cut rates, or a resurgence in USD strength on Fed hawkishness. Upside risks: commodity price spike or RBA rate hike if inflation surprises to the upside.
Sources & References
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