Who’s been right on FX

Median absolute error in basis points for every sell-side forecaster, by G10 pair, scored against the Street’s average. Lower is better. Hover any cell for the directional hit rate and sample size. Updated nightly.

The Street368 231 261 345 541 158 163 402 449avg bps

FirmEUR/USD JPY/USD GBP/USD CHF/USD AUD/USD CAD/USD NZD/USD NOK/USD SEK/USDOverall bpsTD Securities —————27 ———27RBC Capital Markets 199 65 30 0 303 166 0 10 317121BNP Paribas 287 130 30 247 152 166 169 0 53137Mizuho 374 130 45 370 152 94 0 297 370204HSBC 199 260 105 247 303 166 169 248 265218ANZ 60 —————386 ——223Barclays 374 130 329 247 152 94 169 347 370246Nomura 287 260 195 123 606 94 169 149 476262UOB 30 421 32 —624 ————277Goldman Sachs 548 130 105 370 303 166 169 347 370279Bank of America 374 195 254 370 303 166 0 396 476282Crédit Agricole 16 —91 —978 155 ———310Rabobank 321 202 16 549 803 8 ———317UBS 461 65 180 370 758 238 169 436 296330Société Générale 461 65 329 494 455 238 169 297 476332MUFG 548 260 329 370 303 166 169 396 476335CIBC 635 268 ———155 ———353Citi 324 0 419 247 303 121 339 743 741360J.P. Morgan 461 260 554 123 303 94 0 762 825376Commerzbank 461 584 210 333 455 166 339 515 392384Scotiabank 277 285 283 —1130 64 ———408Deutsche Bank 548 325 329 494 455 309 169 594 635429Standard Chartered 112 195 195 741 1364 309 169 99 688430ING 374 260 30 370 1212 238 169 1109 317453Wells Fargo 321 —615 ——————468Nordea 539 ————————539Morgan Stanley 723 584 1302 494 455 238 169 495 529554Danske Bank 635 ———576 ————606

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.